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What are scenarios?
Scenarios are stories about the future.
Scenarios are images of the future, projected from multiple perspectives on the present and the past. ...
Scenarios are a set of organised ways for us to dream effectively about our own future. ... 4)
Scenarios help to perceive different futures in the present. ...
The best scenarios arent necessarily those that come true; they are the ones that subvert expectations, providing deep insights into the changes happening all around us. The better scenarios are, the more they penetrate into the deepest possible understanding of the present. ... 18)
Scenarios are a tool for ordering ones perceptions about alternative future environments, in which decisions might be played out. ... Schwartz, 1991)
History
The use of scenarios as a tool for strategic decision making has its roots in the military. ... Air Force used scenarios in war games. ... In his famous book The Year 2000 (1967), Kahn reworked scenarios to a tool for business strategy. From the 1960s onward, scenarios found their way into the corporate world.
Shell was one of the first corporations, which started and continued to use scenarios. Theres a famous story about Pierre Wack and Ted Newland, who introduced and used scenarios to warn Shells executives for a possible dramatic rise in oil prices. ... Scenarios are developed in order to provide deeper understanding of present options for actions - and their consequences - in the light of possible future environments. ... de Geus)
Note: Scenarios are not predictions of the future. ...
Scenarios are made in order to increase understanding of current options in the light of possible futures. ... The most important of which is:
· Why do I/we want to make scenarios? ... [Finding a balance between content & process]
· What are the objectives
· Who is the self in relation to which we are composing scenarios? ...
Rules of Thumb
First of all, there are a three ‘rules of thumb’ to which scenarios must conform: they must be relevant, novel and substantial.
Scope
Scenarios focus mainly on the ‘contextual’ environment , a number of categories have been distinguished to which cover most of what is going on in the world, as a guidance for your research. Furthermore, scenarios deal with possible futures, and not with probable or desirable ones.
Horizons
Scenario horizon:
Before you start you should determine a horizon year, in which your scenarios take place. ... The axes form the framework in which your scenarios will take place. ...
And finally you should come up with a name for each of the four scenarios. ... (Convergence)
Creating the story
Summarising: Scheme for scenario construction
New insights
Revised scenarios
GO TO THE FORUM
Finding a balance between Content & Process
Scenarios can help with:
· Surmounting blind spots
· Understanding whats happening around you
· Articulating important questions
· Increasing awareness of insufficient connection
· Clarifying strategic options
· Articulating strategy
· Solving problems
· Directing mental models towards action
Some Rules of Thumb for Effective Scenarios:
Relevant
· Illuminate current issues
· Respond to certain circumstances
· Link to current mental models (link naar mental models pagina)
Novel
· Contain new ideas or perceived old ideas
· Challenge existing mental models and strategies
· Provide fresh perspectives
Substantial
· Improve understanding of the present
· Be well researched
· Be internally consisten
Scope I
The scenario method distinguishes three levels of analysis: the self, the transactional environment and the factual environment. ...
Note: Scenarios are stories about the third level. ... By using scenarios to make sense of this world you try to look from the outside to the inside. ...
Scope II
Another way of categorising the scope we deal with using scenarios is:
PESTE
Which stands for the:
· Political environment
· Economical environment
· Social environment
· Technological environment
· Ecological environment
By exploring important developments in all these categories you will be able to cover a large part of what is going on in the world. ...
Scope III
Yet another way of categorising the scope of scenarios concerns:
POSSIBLE, PROBABLE & DESIREABLE Futures
Scenarios deal with POSSIBLE futures.
Approximate Word count = 3171
Approximate Pages = 12.7
(250 words per page double spaced)
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